FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#8 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MIBR#28 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLegacy ban
58%36%
Legacy · 8 mapsedge Legacy +22%MIBR · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%54%
Legacy · 6 mapsedge Legacy +6%MIBR · 9 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
67%67%
Legacy · 5 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 8 maps
NukeMIBR pick
57%62%
Legacy · 3 mapsedge MIBR +5%MIBR · 9 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
50%50%
Legacy · 10 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 0 maps
CacheMIBR ban
50%67%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 5 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%50%
Legacy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickMIBR take Nuke
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. BanLegacy remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (60% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Legacy 42%MIBR 58%
The model gave 58% on MIBR — the map was taken by Legacy.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Legacy 73%MIBR 27%
The model gave 73% on Legacy — the map was taken by MIBR.
Infernoprediction correct16:14
Legacy 50%MIBR 50%
The model gave 50% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 54%
Series resultLegacy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3