ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacy#6 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISION#20 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPARIVISION pick
62%60%
Legacy · 9 mapsnearly even +2%PARIVISION · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
54%50%
Legacy · 9 mapsnearly even +4%PARIVISION · 4 maps
MirageLegacy ban
64%57%
Legacy · 7 mapsedge Legacy +7%PARIVISION · 3 maps
InfernoLegacy pick
75%33%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +42%PARIVISION · 5 maps
CachePARIVISION ban
50%29%
Legacy · 2 mapsedge Legacy +21%PARIVISION · 3 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
63%50%
Legacy · 4 mapsedge Legacy +13%PARIVISION · 0 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
50%50%
Legacy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PARIVISION · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegacy remove Anubis
2. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
3. PickLegacy take Inferno
4. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
5. BanPARIVISION remove Cache
6. BanLegacy remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Legacy 51%PARIVISION 49%
The model gave 51% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Infernoprediction missed2:13
Legacy 87%PARIVISION 13%
The model gave 87% on Legacy — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Ancientprediction missed12:16
Legacy 52%PARIVISION 48%
The model gave 52% on Legacy — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 81%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3