ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
LEGAMloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2LFO 9 ban
50%50%
LEGAM · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 9 · 0 maps
MirageLFO 9 pick
33%50%
LEGAM · 2 mapsedge LFO 9 +17%LFO 9 · 0 maps
AncientLEGAM ban
40%50%
LEGAM · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 0 maps
AnubisLEGAM pick
40%50%
LEGAM · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 0 maps
CacheLFO 9 ban
40%50%
LEGAM · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%LFO 9 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLEGAM remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 9 remove Dust2
3. PickLEGAM take Anubis
4. PickLFO 9 take Mirage
5. BanLFO 9 remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct6:13
LEGAM 37%LFO 9 63%
The model gave 63% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
LEGAM 53%LFO 9 47%
The model gave 53% on LEGAM — the map was taken by LEGAM.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
LEGAM 33%LFO 9 67%
The model gave 67% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 9 · 50%
Series resultLFO 9 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3