ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
Legion#206 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Oasiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Legion pick
43%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Oasis +7%Oasis · 0 maps
NukeOasis ban
50%50%
Legion · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Oasis · 0 maps
AnubisLegion ban
40%50%
Legion · 1 mapedge Oasis +10%Oasis · 0 maps
CacheOasis pick
40%50%
Legion · 1 mapedge Oasis +10%Oasis · 0 maps
DefaultLegion ban
40%50%
Legion · 1 mapedge Oasis +10%Oasis · 0 maps
MirageOasis ban
60%50%
Legion · 1 mapedge Legion +10%Oasis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegion remove Anubis
2. BanOasis remove Mirage
3. PickLegion take Dust2
4. PickOasis take Cache
5. BanOasis remove Nuke
6. BanLegion remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Legion 46%Oasis 54%
The model gave 54% on Oasis — the map was taken by Oasis.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Legion 47%Oasis 53%
The model gave 53% on Oasis — the map was taken by Oasis.
Model check result
Model favoriteOasis · 60%
Series resultOasis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2