Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO1
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 13:8series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 13:8
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aimhaus ban
67%50%
Leo · 14 mapsedge Leo +17%Aimhaus · 0 maps
AnubisLeo ban
33%50%
Leo · 11 mapsedge Aimhaus +17%Aimhaus · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
42%50%
Leo · 8 mapsedge Aimhaus +8%Aimhaus · 0 maps
NukeLeo ban
44%50%
Leo · 5 mapsedge Aimhaus +6%Aimhaus · 0 maps
MirageLeo ban
63%50%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Leo +13%Aimhaus · 0 maps
InfernoAimhaus ban
60%50%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +10%Aimhaus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Nuke
2. BanAimhaus remove Dust2
3. BanLeo remove Mirage
4. BanAimhaus remove Inferno
5. BanLeo remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Leo 67%Aimhaus 33%
The model gave 67% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 67%
Series resultLeo 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1