NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%57%
Leo · 26 mapsnearly even +0%Butterfly · 10 maps
AncientButterfly pick
53%64%
Leo · 15 mapsedge Butterfly +11%Butterfly · 10 maps
NukeLeo pick
72%64%
Leo · 14 mapsedge Leo +8%Butterfly · 10 maps
MirageLeo ban
45%67%
Leo · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +22%Butterfly · 8 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
33%40%
Leo · 11 mapsedge Butterfly +7%Butterfly · 1 map
InfernoButterfly ban
60%25%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +35%Butterfly · 8 maps
CacheLeo ban
50%67%
Leo · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +17%Butterfly · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. BanLeo remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Leo 36%Butterfly 64%
The model gave 64% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
Leo 35%Butterfly 65%
The model gave 65% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteButterfly · 66%
Series resultButterfly 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2