NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo ban
53%57%
Leo · 26 mapsnearly even -4%Inner Circle Academy · 19 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%45%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +5%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
28%60%
Leo · 14 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +32%Inner Circle Academy · 16 maps
NukeLeo pick
68%36%
Leo · 15 mapsedge Leo +32%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
MirageLeo ban
40%57%
Leo · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
50%63%
Leo · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
60%50%
Leo · 1 mapedge Leo +10%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
6. BanLeo remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Leo 50%Inner Circle Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on Leo — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 56%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1