ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLeo pick
87%33%
Leo · 27 mapsedge Leo +54%Privateer · 17 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
41%29%
Leo · 28 mapsedge Leo +12%Privateer · 10 maps
AncientPrivateer pick
39%33%
Leo · 19 mapsedge Leo +6%Privateer · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%50%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +5%Privateer · 2 maps
MiragePrivateer ban
38%30%
Leo · 12 mapsedge Leo +8%Privateer · 6 maps
AnubisLeo ban
36%60%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Privateer +24%Privateer · 1 map
DefaultLeo ban
22%22%
Leo · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Privateer · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Anubis
2. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickPrivateer take Ancient
5. BanPrivateer remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Default
DeciderCache (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Leo 53%Privateer 47%
The model gave 53% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
Leo 94%Privateer 6%
The model gave 94% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 72%
Series resultLeo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2