ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ryvex#181 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
39%38%
Leo · 27 mapsnearly even +1%Ryvex · 4 maps
NukeLeo pick
86%33%
Leo · 25 mapsedge Leo +53%Ryvex · 5 maps
AncientRyvex pick
38%60%
Leo · 17 mapsedge Ryvex +22%Ryvex · 6 maps
CacheRyvex ban
55%43%
Leo · 16 mapsedge Leo +12%Ryvex · 3 maps
MirageLeo ban
38%57%
Leo · 12 mapsedge Ryvex +19%Ryvex · 3 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
36%50%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Ryvex +14%Ryvex · 0 maps
DefaultLeo ban
22%50%
Leo · 5 mapsedge Ryvex +28%Ryvex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Mirage
2. BanRyvex remove Anubis
3. PickLeo take Nuke
4. PickRyvex take Ancient
5. BanRyvex remove Cache
6. BanLeo remove Default
DeciderDust2 (39% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Leo 27%Ryvex 73%
The model gave 73% on Ryvex — the map was taken by Ryvex.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Leo 93%Ryvex 7%
The model gave 93% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Leo 51%Ryvex 49%
The model gave 51% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 65%
Series resultLeo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3