Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
44%50%
Leo · 21 mapedge UNiTY +6%UNiTY · 12 maps
AncientLeo pick
44%65%
Leo · 14 mapsedge UNiTY +21%UNiTY · 16 maps
MirageLeo ban
33%50%
Leo · 8 mapsedge UNiTY +17%UNiTY · 14 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
86%29%
Leo · 17 mapsedge Leo +57%UNiTY · 3 maps
AnubisUNiTY pick
38%67%
Leo · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +29%UNiTY · 8 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
45%46%
Leo · 7 mapsnearly even -1%UNiTY · 9 maps
InfernoLeo ban
50%56%
Leo · 0 mapsedge UNiTY +6%UNiTY · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Inferno
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickLeo take Ancient
4. PickUNiTY take Anubis
5. BanUNiTY remove Cache
6. BanLeo remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Leo 28%UNiTY 72%
The model gave 72% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Leo 47%UNiTY 53%
The model gave 53% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 59%
Series resultUNiTY 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2