ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Leo#89 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Leo pick
67%57%
Leo · 17 mapsedge Leo +10%Vexar · 3 maps
AncientVexar pick
54%43%
Leo · 9 mapsedge Leo +11%Vexar · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
36%43%
Leo · 10 mapsedge Vexar +7%Vexar · 3 maps
MirageVexar ban
50%44%
Leo · 4 mapsedge Leo +6%Vexar · 5 maps
NukeVexar ban
50%43%
Leo · 6 mapsedge Leo +7%Vexar · 3 maps
DefaultLeo ban
50%60%
Leo · 0 mapsedge Vexar +10%Vexar · 6 maps
InfernoLeo ban
60%56%
Leo · 1 mapnearly even +4%Vexar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLeo remove Default
2. BanVexar remove Nuke
3. PickLeo take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Mirage
6. BanLeo remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (36% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Leo 58%Vexar 42%
The model gave 58% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Leo 60%Vexar 40%
The model gave 60% on Leo — the map was taken by Leo.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeo · 74%
Series resultLeo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2