ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs predictionL1LFO 10#164 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLFO 10 ban
50%59%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +9%MOUZ NXT · 25 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%27%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +23%MOUZ NXT · 18 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
60%25%
LFO 10 · 1 mapedge LFO 10 +35%MOUZ NXT · 16 maps
CacheLFO 10 pick
60%47%
LFO 10 · 1 mapedge LFO 10 +13%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
50%60%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 11 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +10%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
DefaultLFO 10 ban
50%71%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +21%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 10 remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickLFO 10 take Cache
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanLFO 10 remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
LFO 10 70%MOUZ NXT 30%
The model gave 70% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
LFO 10 84%MOUZ NXT 16%
The model gave 84% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
LFO 10 63%MOUZ NXT 37%
The model gave 63% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 52%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3