ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNEXORA ban
50%50%
LFO 7 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NEXORA · 2 maps
AncientNEXORA ban
60%40%
LFO 7 · 1 mapedge LFO 7 +20%NEXORA · 1 map
Dust2NEXORA pick
60%60%
LFO 7 · 1 mapnearly even +0%NEXORA · 1 map
InfernoLFO 7 ban
33%50%
LFO 7 · 2 mapsedge NEXORA +17%NEXORA · 0 maps
NukeLFO 7 pick
60%40%
LFO 7 · 1 mapedge LFO 7 +20%NEXORA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 7 remove Inferno
2. BanNEXORA remove Ancient
3. PickLFO 7 take Nuke
4. PickNEXORA take Dust2
5. BanNEXORA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
LFO 7 72%NEXORA 28%
The model gave 72% on LFO 7 — the map was taken by LFO 7.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
LFO 7 47%NEXORA 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXORA — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
LFO 7 50%NEXORA 50%
The model gave 50% on LFO 7 — the map was taken by NEXORA.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 7 · 50%
Series resultNEXORA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3