ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Oasisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Oasis pick
40%60%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge Oasis +20%Oasis · 1 map
AnubisOasis ban
60%50%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%Oasis · 0 maps
InfernoLFO 9 ban
50%60%
LFO 9 · 0 mapsedge Oasis +10%Oasis · 1 map
MirageLFO 9 pick
60%50%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%Oasis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 9 remove Inferno
2. BanOasis remove Anubis
3. PickLFO 9 take Mirage
4. PickOasis take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
LFO 9 63%Oasis 37%
The model gave 63% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
LFO 9 37%Oasis 63%
The model gave 63% on Oasis — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 9 · 50%
Series resultLFO 9 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2