CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#191 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Famalicão#357 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix pick
45%60%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge Famalicão +15%Famalicão · 1 map
Dust2Lilmix ban
29%60%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Famalicão +31%Famalicão · 1 map
AncientFamalicão ban
57%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +7%Famalicão · 0 maps
InfernoFamalicão ban
60%33%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +27%Famalicão · 2 maps
OverpassFamalicão pick
60%67%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Famalicão +7%Famalicão · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Dust2
2. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
3. PickLilmix take Mirage
4. PickFamalicão take Overpass
5. BanFamalicão remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
Lilmix 46%Famalicão 54%
The model gave 54% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Lilmix 19%Famalicão 81%
The model gave 81% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Lilmix 50%Famalicão 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 54%
Series resultFamalicão 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3