Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLilmix pick
50%40%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge Lilmix +10%overTIME · 1 map
InfernoLilmix ban
33%50%
Lilmix · 5 mapsedge overTIME +17%overTIME · 0 maps
CacheoverTIME ban
38%50%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge overTIME +12%overTIME · 0 maps
MirageoverTIME pick
29%60%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge overTIME +31%overTIME · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
60%40%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +20%overTIME · 1 map
DefaultoverTIME ban
67%50%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +17%overTIME · 0 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
33%50%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge overTIME +17%overTIME · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Dust2
2. BanoverTIME remove Cache
3. PickLilmix take Ancient
4. PickoverTIME take Mirage
5. BanoverTIME remove Default
6. BanLilmix remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
Lilmix 19%overTIME 81%
The model gave 81% on overTIME — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Lilmix 63%overTIME 37%
The model gave 63% on Lilmix — the map was taken by overTIME.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
Lilmix 69%overTIME 31%
The model gave 69% on Lilmix — the map was taken by overTIME.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 59%
Series resultoverTIME 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3