CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lilmix ban
25%29%
Lilmix · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Subtop De France · 3 maps
MirageSubtop De France ban
32%50%
Lilmix · 15 mapsedge Subtop De France +18%Subtop De France · 0 maps
AncientSubtop De France ban
33%40%
Lilmix · 11 mapsedge Subtop De France +7%Subtop De France · 1 map
InfernoLilmix pick
75%33%
Lilmix · 8 mapsedge Lilmix +42%Subtop De France · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
55%50%
Lilmix · 7 mapsedge Lilmix +5%Subtop De France · 0 maps
DefaultSubtop De France pick
43%60%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Subtop De France +17%Subtop De France · 1 map
NukeLilmix ban
50%50%
Lilmix · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Nuke
2. BanSubtop De France remove Mirage
3. PickLilmix take Inferno
4. PickSubtop De France take Default
5. BanSubtop De France remove Ancient
6. BanLilmix remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Lilmix 46%Subtop De France 54%
The model gave 54% on Subtop De France — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Lilmix 42%Subtop De France 58%
The model gave 58% on Subtop De France — the map was taken by Subtop De France.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Lilmix 86%Subtop De France 14%
The model gave 86% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Subtop De France.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 55%
Series resultSubtop De France 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3