CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilmix#191 in the world · win 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageUrsa ban
38%50%
Lilmix · 4 mapsedge Ursa +12%Ursa · 0 maps
AncientUrsa ban
57%50%
Lilmix · 3 mapsedge Lilmix +7%Ursa · 0 maps
Dust2Ursa pick
33%60%
Lilmix · 2 mapsedge Ursa +27%Ursa · 1 map
InfernoLilmix ban
50%50%
Lilmix · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 2 maps
OverpassLilmix pick
60%40%
Lilmix · 1 mapedge Lilmix +20%Ursa · 1 map
NukeLilmix ban
50%40%
Lilmix · 0 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Ursa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLilmix remove Nuke
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. PickLilmix take Overpass
4. PickUrsa take Dust2
5. BanUrsa remove Mirage
6. BanLilmix remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Lilmix 23%Ursa 77%
The model gave 77% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Lilmix 40%Ursa 60%
The model gave 60% on Ursa — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Lilmix 50%Ursa 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 67%
Series resultLilmix 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3