Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9INE#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLiquid pick
67%67%
Liquid · 5 mapsnearly even +0%9INE · 5 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
22%38%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge 9INE +16%9INE · 4 maps
Anubis9INE ban
56%40%
Liquid · 5 mapsedge Liquid +16%9INE · 1 map
AncientLiquid ban
50%43%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +7%9INE · 3 maps
Inferno9INE pick
57%67%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge 9INE +10%9INE · 2 maps
Mirage9INE ban
43%60%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge 9INE +17%9INE · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
40%40%
Liquid · 1 mapnearly even +0%9INE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. Ban9INE remove Anubis
3. PickLiquid take Nuke
4. Pick9INE take Inferno
5. Ban9INE remove Mirage
6. BanLiquid remove Dust2
DeciderCache (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
Liquid 47%9INE 53%
The model gave 53% on 9INE — the map was taken by Liquid.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Liquid 68%9INE 32%
The model gave 68% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 71%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2