IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassLiquid pick
50%33%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +17%Astralis · 2 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
50%40%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%Astralis · 1 map
InfernoAstralis ban
50%40%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%Astralis · 1 map
MirageLiquid ban
50%60%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 1 map
NukeAstralis pick
50%60%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Mirage
2. BanAstralis remove Dust2
3. PickLiquid take Overpass
4. PickAstralis take Nuke
5. BanAstralis remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Liquid 63%Astralis 37%
The model gave 63% on Liquid — the map was taken by Astralis.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Liquid 47%Astralis 53%
The model gave 53% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 70%
Series resultAstralis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2