IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FlyQuest pick
25%67%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +42%FlyQuest · 2 maps
AncientLiquid ban
50%43%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +7%FlyQuest · 3 maps
InfernoLiquid pick
67%43%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +24%FlyQuest · 3 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
33%33%
Liquid · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
57%60%
Liquid · 3 mapsnearly even -3%FlyQuest · 1 map
AnubisLiquid ban
50%67%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
3. PickLiquid take Inferno
4. PickFlyQuest take Dust2
5. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
6. BanLiquid remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct2:13
Liquid 31%FlyQuest 69%
The model gave 69% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Liquid 75%FlyQuest 25%
The model gave 75% on Liquid — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 74%
Series resultFlyQuest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2