Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JiJieHao#47 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisLiquid pick
69%57%
Liquid · 12 mapsedge Liquid +12%JiJieHao · 10 maps
MirageJiJieHao pick
67%75%
Liquid · 8 mapsedge JiJieHao +8%JiJieHao · 12 maps
CacheJiJieHao ban
64%46%
Liquid · 10 mapsedge Liquid +18%JiJieHao · 9 maps
Dust2Liquid ban
42%31%
Liquid · 8 mapsedge Liquid +11%JiJieHao · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
80%50%
Liquid · 6 mapsedge Liquid +30%JiJieHao · 6 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
56%50%
Liquid · 12 mapsedge Liquid +6%JiJieHao · 0 maps
AncientLiquid ban
40%55%
Liquid · 1 mapedge JiJieHao +15%JiJieHao · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
3. PickLiquid take Anubis
4. PickJiJieHao take Mirage
5. BanJiJieHao remove Cache
6. BanLiquid remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (80% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Liquid 37%JiJieHao 63%
The model gave 63% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by Liquid.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
Liquid 70%JiJieHao 30%
The model gave 70% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 62%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2