IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
M80#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
40%40%
Liquid · 1 mapnearly even +0%M80 · 1 map
DefaultLiquid ban
50%67%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 2 maps
Dust2Liquid pick
40%60%
Liquid · 1 mapedge M80 +20%M80 · 1 map
InfernoM80 pick
50%50%
Liquid · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 2 maps
MirageLiquid ban
50%50%
Liquid · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 2 maps
AnubisM80 ban
50%40%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Liquid +10%M80 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Default
2. BanM80 remove Anubis
3. PickLiquid take Dust2
4. PickM80 take Inferno
5. BanM80 remove Ancient
6. BanLiquid remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Liquid 33%M80 67%
The model gave 67% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Liquid 47%M80 53%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the map was taken by Liquid.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Liquid 50%M80 50%
The model gave 50% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 53%
Series resultLiquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3