Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
64%50%
Liquid · 7 mapsedge Liquid +14%Metizport · 6 maps
AnubisLiquid pick
58%50%
Liquid · 8 mapsedge Liquid +8%Metizport · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%60%
Liquid · 3 mapsedge Metizport +17%Metizport · 6 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
36%50%
Liquid · 7 mapsedge Metizport +14%Metizport · 0 maps
InfernoMetizport ban
57%57%
Liquid · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 3 maps
AncientLiquid ban
50%57%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Metizport +7%Metizport · 3 maps
OverpassLiquid ban
50%56%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge Metizport +6%Metizport · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Ancient
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. PickLiquid take Anubis
4. PickMetizport take Nuke
5. BanMetizport remove Inferno
6. BanLiquid remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Liquid 53%Metizport 47%
The model gave 53% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Liquid 47%Metizport 53%
The model gave 53% on Metizport — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 74%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2