NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
los kogutos · 2 mapsnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 4 maps
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%75%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +25%SAW Youngsters · 4 maps
Ancientlos kogutos pick
60%67%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge SAW Youngsters +7%SAW Youngsters · 2 maps
Defaultlos kogutos ban
40%40%
los kogutos · 1 mapnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
NukeSAW Youngsters ban
60%40%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge los kogutos +20%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
AnubisSAW Youngsters pick
50%60%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +10%SAW Youngsters · 1 map
Dust2SAW Youngsters ban
40%50%
los kogutos · 1 mapedge SAW Youngsters +10%SAW Youngsters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. BanSAW Youngsters remove Nuke
3. Picklos kogutos take Ancient
4. PickSAW Youngsters take Anubis
5. BanSAW Youngsters remove Dust2
6. Banlos kogutos remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
los kogutos 37%SAW Youngsters 63%
The model gave 63% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
los kogutos 72%SAW Youngsters 28%
The model gave 72% on los kogutos — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Model check result
Model favoritelos kogutos · 52%
Series resultSAW Youngsters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2