ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionLCLow Cortisol BR#183 in the world · loss 0:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yawara#156 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%56%
Low Cortisol BR · 2 mapsedge Yawara +6%Yawara · 14 maps
MirageLow Cortisol BR pick
50%35%
Low Cortisol BR · 2 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +15%Yawara · 13 maps
Dust2Yawara pick
38%50%
Low Cortisol BR · 4 mapsedge Yawara +12%Yawara · 10 maps
AnubisLow Cortisol BR ban
50%53%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Yawara · 13 maps
CacheYawara ban
50%18%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Low Cortisol BR +32%Yawara · 7 maps
InfernoLow Cortisol BR ban
50%57%
Low Cortisol BR · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
NukeYawara ban
40%50%
Low Cortisol BR · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Anubis
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickLow Cortisol BR take Mirage
4. PickYawara take Dust2
5. BanYawara remove Cache
6. BanLow Cortisol BR remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Low Cortisol BR 50%Yawara 50%
The model gave 50% on Low Cortisol BR — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteLow Cortisol BR · 56%
Series resultYawara 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1