ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
59%78%
LP · 13 mapsedge Galorys +19%Galorys · 33 maps
Dust2LP ban
36%54%
LP · 7 mapsedge Galorys +18%Galorys · 20 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%69%
LP · 9 mapsedge Galorys +23%Galorys · 12 maps
CacheLP pick
67%54%
LP · 8 mapsedge LP +13%Galorys · 9 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
56%38%
LP · 5 mapsedge LP +18%Galorys · 9 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%50%
LP · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Galorys · 12 maps
MirageGalorys ban
42%50%
LP · 8 mapsedge Galorys +8%Galorys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Anubis
2. BanGalorys remove Mirage
3. PickLP take Cache
4. PickGalorys take Ancient
5. BanGalorys remove Inferno
6. BanLP remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (46% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
LP 69%Galorys 31%
The model gave 69% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
LP 26%Galorys 74%
The model gave 74% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
LP 33%Galorys 67%
The model gave 67% on Galorys — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 62%
Series resultLP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3