HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
50%68%
LP · 12 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +18%SAW Youngsters · 18 maps
AncientLP pick
65%50%
LP · 13 mapsedge LP +15%SAW Youngsters · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%42%
LP · 8 mapsnearly even +0%SAW Youngsters · 15 maps
MirageLP ban
25%37%
LP · 8 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +12%SAW Youngsters · 15 maps
NukeSAW Youngsters ban
47%40%
LP · 11 mapsedge LP +7%SAW Youngsters · 6 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%58%
LP · 0 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +8%SAW Youngsters · 8 maps
CacheSAW Youngsters ban
73%50%
LP · 7 mapsedge LP +23%SAW Youngsters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Anubis
2. BanSAW Youngsters remove Cache
3. PickLP take Ancient
4. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
5. BanSAW Youngsters remove Nuke
6. BanLP remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (42% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
LP 47%SAW Youngsters 53%
The model gave 53% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
LP 60%SAW Youngsters 40%
The model gave 60% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
LP 32%SAW Youngsters 68%
The model gave 68% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 63%
Series resultSAW Youngsters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3