ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
LP#107 in the world · win 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLP pick
56%74%
LP · 12 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +18%Turma do Pagode · 23 maps
Dust2LP ban
36%45%
LP · 7 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +9%Turma do Pagode · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%56%
LP · 10 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +13%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
47%50%
LP · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode pick
31%63%
LP · 9 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +32%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
69%67%
LP · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
AnubisLP ban
50%43%
LP · 0 mapsedge LP +7%Turma do Pagode · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLP remove Anubis
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
3. PickLP take Ancient
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Mirage
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
6. BanLP remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (43% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
LP 29%Turma do Pagode 71%
The model gave 71% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by LP.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
LP 23%Turma do Pagode 77%
The model gave 77% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 64%
Series resultLP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2