ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
50%48%
LPH · 10 mapsnearly even +2%Permitta · 21 map
AncientLPH pick
56%43%
LPH · 12 mapsedge LPH +13%Permitta · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
LPH · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 10 maps
MirageLPH ban
67%50%
LPH · 2 mapsedge LPH +17%Permitta · 14 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
58%30%
LPH · 8 mapsedge LPH +28%Permitta · 6 maps
CacheLPH ban
29%64%
LPH · 3 mapsedge Permitta +35%Permitta · 7 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
73%50%
LPH · 7 mapsedge LPH +23%Permitta · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Inferno
3. PickLPH take Ancient
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Dust2
6. BanLPH remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
LPH 49%Permitta 51%
The model gave 51% on Permitta — the map was taken by LPH.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
LPH 66%Permitta 34%
The model gave 66% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 58%
Series resultLPH 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2