CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LPH#166 in the world · win 1:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Walczaki#151 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeLPH ban
53%36%
LPH · 11 mapsedge LPH +17%Walczaki · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
61%57%
LPH · 14 mapsnearly even +4%Walczaki · 3 maps
AnubisWalczaki pick
36%58%
LPH · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +22%Walczaki · 8 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
70%31%
LPH · 6 mapsedge LPH +39%Walczaki · 9 maps
CacheLPH ban
29%36%
LPH · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 7 maps
DefaultLPH pick
50%14%
LPH · 0 mapsedge LPH +36%Walczaki · 10 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
44%50%
LPH · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Cache
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickLPH take Default
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanLPH remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (61% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
LPH 86%Walczaki 14%
The model gave 86% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 52%
Series resultLPH 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1