Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#28 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
33%47%
Luminosity · 8 mapsedge Nexus +14%Nexus · 13 maps
AnubisNexus pick
50%56%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nexus +6%Nexus · 14 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
33%46%
Luminosity · 5 mapsedge Nexus +13%Nexus · 9 maps
AncientLuminosity ban
60%73%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Nexus +13%Nexus · 7 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
80%60%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Luminosity +20%Nexus · 6 maps
InfernoNexus ban
60%44%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Luminosity +16%Nexus · 5 maps
NukeNexus ban
45%40%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge Luminosity +5%Nexus · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickLuminosity take Mirage
4. PickNexus take Anubis
5. BanNexus remove Inferno
6. BanLuminosity remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (33% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Luminosity 33%Nexus 67%
The model gave 67% on Nexus — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Luminosity 68%Nexus 32%
The model gave 68% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Nexus.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Luminosity 36%Nexus 64%
The model gave 64% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 82%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3