Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BIG#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Luminosity +10%BIG · 10 maps
InfernoLuminosity pick
60%58%
Luminosity · 6 mapsnearly even +2%BIG · 8 maps
MirageBIG ban
67%42%
Luminosity · 5 mapsedge Luminosity +25%BIG · 8 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
33%62%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge BIG +29%BIG · 9 maps
Dust2BIG pick
36%57%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge BIG +21%BIG · 3 maps
NukeLuminosity ban
55%57%
Luminosity · 7 mapsnearly even -2%BIG · 3 maps
AnubisBIG ban
50%60%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge BIG +10%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanBIG remove Mirage
3. PickLuminosity take Inferno
4. PickBIG take Dust2
5. BanBIG remove Anubis
6. BanLuminosity remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
Luminosity 55%BIG 45%
The model gave 55% on Luminosity — the map was taken by BIG.
Cacheprediction missed13:5
Luminosity 22%BIG 78%
The model gave 78% on BIG — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
Luminosity 74%BIG 26%
The model gave 74% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 52%
Series resultLuminosity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3