Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
60%59%
Luminosity · 6 mapsnearly even +1%Nemiga · 25 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
36%57%
Luminosity · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +21%Nemiga · 19 maps
MirageLuminosity pick
78%76%
Luminosity · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Nemiga · 17 maps
NukeLuminosity ban
50%67%
Luminosity · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 14 maps
CacheLuminosity ban
43%71%
Luminosity · 3 mapsedge Nemiga +28%Nemiga · 13 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
50%74%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +24%Nemiga · 15 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%60%
Luminosity · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Cache
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickLuminosity take Mirage
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanLuminosity remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (60% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Luminosity 22%Nemiga 78%
The model gave 78% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
Luminosity 33%Nemiga 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 55%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2