XSE Pro League Guangzhou 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luminosity#30 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLuminosity pick
50%42%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +8%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 maps
NukeLuminosity ban
50%78%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +28%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
MirageLuminosity ban
50%50%
Luminosity · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%33%
Luminosity · 0 mapsedge Luminosity +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
33%50%
Luminosity · 2 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLuminosity remove Nuke
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
3. PickLuminosity take Ancient
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Anubis
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
6. BanLuminosity remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Luminosity 20%Ninjas in Pyjamas 80%
The model gave 80% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Luminosity.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Luminosity 36%Ninjas in Pyjamas 64%
The model gave 64% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Luminosity 50%Ninjas in Pyjamas 50%
The model gave 50% on Luminosity — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteLuminosity · 58%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3