ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lynn Vision#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNEXVOID pick
46%73%
Lynn Vision · 9 mapsedge NEXVOID +27%NEXVOID · 18 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%67%
Lynn Vision · 8 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 17 maps
Dust2Lynn Vision pick
47%46%
Lynn Vision · 11 mapsnearly even +1%NEXVOID · 9 maps
NukeNEXVOID ban
75%42%
Lynn Vision · 4 mapsedge Lynn Vision +33%NEXVOID · 8 maps
CacheLynn Vision ban
33%22%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +11%NEXVOID · 5 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
50%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 2 maps
DefaultLynn Vision ban
60%60%
Lynn Vision · 1 mapnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLynn Vision remove Cache
2. BanNEXVOID remove Nuke
3. PickLynn Vision take Dust2
4. PickNEXVOID take Ancient
5. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
6. BanLynn Vision remove Default
DeciderInferno (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Lynn Vision 22%NEXVOID 78%
The model gave 78% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Lynn Vision 83%NEXVOID 17%
The model gave 83% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Infernoprediction missed16:19
Lynn Vision 50%NEXVOID 50%
The model gave 50% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 86%
Series resultNEXVOID 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3