ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lynn Vision#39 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
43%56%
Lynn Vision · 10 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +13%Vitalem Aerem · 5 maps
AncientLynn Vision ban
36%57%
Lynn Vision · 7 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +21%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
InfernoVitalem Aerem ban
64%43%
Lynn Vision · 7 mapsedge Lynn Vision +21%Vitalem Aerem · 3 maps
NukeLynn Vision pick
67%38%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +29%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
AnubisVitalem Aerem ban
50%60%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
CacheLynn Vision ban
33%50%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +17%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
Lynn Vision · 1 mapnearly even +0%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLynn Vision remove Cache
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Inferno
3. PickLynn Vision take Nuke
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Anubis
6. BanLynn Vision remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed19:16
Lynn Vision 28%Vitalem Aerem 72%
The model gave 72% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Lynn Vision 40%Vitalem Aerem 60%
The model gave 60% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 83%
Series resultLynn Vision 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2