IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8#15 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageB8 pick
60%67%
M80 · 6 mapsedge B8 +7%B8 · 5 maps
AncientM80 ban
33%63%
M80 · 5 mapsedge B8 +30%B8 · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
71%43%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +28%B8 · 3 maps
InfernoM80 pick
50%50%
M80 · 6 mapsnearly even +0%B8 · 0 maps
OverpassM80 ban
40%57%
M80 · 1 mapedge B8 +17%B8 · 3 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%50%
M80 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%B8 · 0 maps
DefaultB8 ban
67%50%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +17%B8 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Ancient
2. BanB8 remove Anubis
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickB8 take Mirage
5. BanB8 remove Default
6. BanM80 remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (71% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
M80 21%B8 79%
The model gave 79% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Infernoprediction missed20:22
M80 53%B8 47%
The model gave 53% on M80 — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 62%
Series resultB8 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2