Circuit X BLAST Open Porto 2026 North America Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LAG#93 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoM80 pick
50%36%
M80 · 10 mapsedge M80 +14%LAG · 7 maps
MirageLAG ban
58%63%
M80 · 8 mapsedge LAG +5%LAG · 4 maps
AncientM80 ban
36%29%
M80 · 7 mapsedge M80 +7%LAG · 3 maps
Dust2LAG pick
56%67%
M80 · 5 mapsedge LAG +11%LAG · 2 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%70%
M80 · 0 mapsedge LAG +20%LAG · 6 maps
AnubisLAG ban
50%40%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +10%LAG · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
67%40%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +27%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanLAG remove Anubis
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickLAG take Dust2
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanM80 remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (67% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
M80 56%LAG 44%
The model gave 56% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
M80 66%LAG 34%
The model gave 66% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 82%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2