BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
46%44%
M80 · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%50%
M80 · 8 mapsedge M80 +8%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 8 maps
InfernoM80 pick
53%57%
M80 · 11 mapsnearly even -4%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 3 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%73%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +23%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 11 maps
AnubisNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%44%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +6%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 5 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
56%33%
M80 · 5 mapsedge M80 +23%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
CacheNinjas in Pyjamas ban
67%40%
M80 · 2 mapsedge M80 +27%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Anubis
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Cache
6. BanM80 remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
M80 49%Ninjas in Pyjamas 51%
The model gave 51% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
M80 49%Ninjas in Pyjamas 51%
The model gave 51% on Ninjas in Pyjamas — the map was taken by Ninjas in Pyjamas.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 51%
Series resultNinjas in Pyjamas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2