IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NRG#30 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNRG pick
30%50%
M80 · 6 mapsedge NRG +20%NRG · 4 maps
InfernoM80 pick
45%43%
M80 · 7 mapsnearly even +2%NRG · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%57%
M80 · 6 mapsnearly even +3%NRG · 3 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%38%
M80 · 0 mapsedge M80 +12%NRG · 4 maps
Dust2NRG ban
71%50%
M80 · 3 mapsedge M80 +21%NRG · 0 maps
OverpassNRG ban
40%33%
M80 · 1 mapedge M80 +7%NRG · 2 maps
AnubisM80 ban
50%50%
M80 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NRG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanNRG remove Dust2
3. PickM80 take Inferno
4. PickNRG take Ancient
5. BanNRG remove Overpass
6. BanM80 remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
M80 28%NRG 72%
The model gave 72% on NRG — the map was taken by M80.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
M80 56%NRG 44%
The model gave 56% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 54%
Series resultM80 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2