ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTYLOO pick
46%67%
M80 · 9 mapsedge TYLOO +21%TYLOO · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
47%42%
M80 · 11 mapsedge M80 +5%TYLOO · 8 maps
AncientM80 ban
54%69%
M80 · 9 mapsedge TYLOO +15%TYLOO · 9 maps
CacheM80 pick
63%71%
M80 · 12 mapsedge TYLOO +8%TYLOO · 3 maps
AnubisTYLOO ban
44%33%
M80 · 5 mapsedge M80 +11%TYLOO · 2 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
45%50%
M80 · 7 mapsedge TYLOO +5%TYLOO · 0 maps
NukeM80 ban
50%25%
M80 · 0 mapsedge M80 +25%TYLOO · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Nuke
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickM80 take Cache
4. PickTYLOO take Mirage
5. BanTYLOO remove Anubis
6. BanM80 remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (47% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
M80 28%TYLOO 72%
The model gave 72% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
M80 43%TYLOO 57%
The model gave 57% on TYLOO — the map was taken by M80.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
M80 62%TYLOO 38%
The model gave 62% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 56%
Series resultM80 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3