Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
M80#30 in the world · win 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Zomblers#192 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageM80 ban
60%67%
M80 · 1 mapedge Zomblers +7%Zomblers · 5 maps
AncientM80 ban
40%71%
M80 · 1 mapedge Zomblers +31%Zomblers · 3 maps
Dust2Zomblers ban
50%29%
M80 · 0 mapsedge M80 +21%Zomblers · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
M80 · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
OverpassM80 pick
50%33%
M80 · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%Zomblers · 2 maps
AnubisZomblers ban
40%50%
M80 · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 0 maps
InfernoZomblers pick
50%60%
M80 · 0 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanM80 remove Ancient
2. BanZomblers remove Anubis
3. PickM80 take Overpass
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Dust2
6. BanM80 remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
M80 50%Zomblers 50%
The model gave 50% on M80 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 88%
Series resultM80 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1