ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs prediction
madlikewizardswin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmadlikewizards pick
50%40%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Dust2LFO 8 ban
50%40%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Miragemadlikewizards ban
50%40%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
NukeLFO 8 pick
50%40%
madlikewizards · 0 mapsedge madlikewizards +10%LFO 8 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmadlikewizards remove Mirage
2. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
3. Pickmadlikewizards take Ancient
4. PickLFO 8 take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
madlikewizards 47%LFO 8 53%
The model gave 53% on LFO 8 — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Cacheprediction missed9:13
madlikewizards 53%LFO 8 47%
The model gave 53% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by LFO 8.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
madlikewizards 60%LFO 8 40%
The model gave 60% on madlikewizards — the map was taken by madlikewizards.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 8 · 53%
Series resultmadlikewizards 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3