Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
50%46%
magic · 8 mapsnearly even +4%9z · 9 maps
Dust2magic ban
50%56%
magic · 4 mapsedge 9z +6%9z · 12 maps
Ancient9z ban
69%43%
magic · 9 mapsedge magic +26%9z · 3 maps
Inferno9z ban
50%57%
magic · 2 mapsedge 9z +7%9z · 10 maps
Overpass9z pick
60%67%
magic · 1 mapedge 9z +7%9z · 8 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%9z · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%60%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +3%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. Ban9z remove Ancient
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Inferno
6. Banmagic remove Dust2
DeciderCache (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct19:17
magic 77%9z 23%
The model gave 77% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
magic 41%9z 59%
The model gave 59% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
magic 43%9z 57%
The model gave 57% on 9z — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 65%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3