1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EYEBALLERS#43 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
57%57%
magic · 17 mapsnearly even +0%EYEBALLERS · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%36%
magic · 8 mapsedge magic +14%EYEBALLERS · 7 maps
CacheEYEBALLERS ban
73%22%
magic · 7 mapsedge magic +51%EYEBALLERS · 5 maps
Dust2EYEBALLERS ban
33%38%
magic · 8 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +5%EYEBALLERS · 4 maps
Infernomagic ban
50%50%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%EYEBALLERS · 6 maps
AnubisEYEBALLERS pick
50%63%
magic · 4 mapsedge EYEBALLERS +13%EYEBALLERS · 4 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%43%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +7%EYEBALLERS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanEYEBALLERS remove Cache
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickEYEBALLERS take Anubis
5. BanEYEBALLERS remove Dust2
6. Banmagic remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
magic 35%EYEBALLERS 65%
The model gave 65% on EYEBALLERS — the map was taken by EYEBALLERS.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
magic 48%EYEBALLERS 52%
The model gave 52% on EYEBALLERS — the map was taken by magic.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
magic 50%EYEBALLERS 50%
The model gave 50% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 69%
Series resultmagic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3