1win Private Club Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GamerLegion#19 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
58%45%
magic · 20 mapsedge magic +13%GamerLegion · 7 maps
Dust2magic ban
43%40%
magic · 10 mapsnearly even +3%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
46%30%
magic · 9 mapsedge magic +16%GamerLegion · 6 maps
CacheGamerLegion pick
67%80%
magic · 8 mapsedge GamerLegion +13%GamerLegion · 6 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 6 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
44%50%
magic · 5 mapsedge GamerLegion +6%GamerLegion · 0 maps
InfernoGamerLegion ban
56%50%
magic · 5 mapsedge magic +6%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickGamerLegion take Cache
5. BanGamerLegion remove Inferno
6. Banmagic remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (46% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
magic 31%GamerLegion 69%
The model gave 69% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
magic 65%GamerLegion 35%
The model gave 65% on magic — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 61%
Series resultGamerLegion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2