IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#34 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
67%63%
magic · 8 mapsnearly even +4%K27 · 12 maps
MirageK27 pick
56%63%
magic · 5 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 15 maps
Cachemagic ban
63%62%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +1%K27 · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
38%62%
magic · 4 mapsedge K27 +24%K27 · 9 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%25%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +25%K27 · 12 maps
AnubisK27 ban
57%50%
magic · 3 mapsedge magic +7%K27 · 6 maps
DefaultK27 ban
50%33%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +17%K27 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanK27 remove Anubis
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Default
6. Banmagic remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (38% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
magic 48%K27 52%
The model gave 52% on K27 — the map was taken by magic.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
magic 58%K27 42%
The model gave 58% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 72%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2