StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MIBR#12 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
60%42%
magic · 16 mapsedge magic +18%MIBR · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%54%
magic · 7 mapsedge MIBR +9%MIBR · 9 maps
CacheMIBR ban
73%60%
magic · 7 mapsedge magic +13%MIBR · 6 maps
InfernoMIBR pick
57%64%
magic · 3 mapsedge MIBR +7%MIBR · 10 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%53%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even -3%MIBR · 11 maps
Dust2MIBR ban
33%50%
magic · 8 mapsedge MIBR +17%MIBR · 0 maps
Anubismagic ban
50%50%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MIBR · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanMIBR remove Dust2
3. Pickmagic take Ancient
4. PickMIBR take Inferno
5. BanMIBR remove Cache
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (45% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
magic 70%MIBR 30%
The model gave 70% on magic — the map was taken by MIBR.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
magic 39%MIBR 61%
The model gave 61% on MIBR — the map was taken by magic.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
magic 43%MIBR 57%
The model gave 57% on MIBR — the map was taken by MIBR.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 51%
Series resultMIBR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3