Stake Ranked Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ninjas in Pyjamas#26 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
57%50%
magic · 10 mapsedge magic +7%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
AncientNinjas in Pyjamas pick
50%50%
magic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
Dust2Ninjas in Pyjamas ban
50%33%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +17%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
InfernoNinjas in Pyjamas ban
60%50%
magic · 6 mapsedge magic +10%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%75%
magic · 0 mapsedge Ninjas in Pyjamas +25%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
71%50%
magic · 3 mapsedge magic +21%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 0 maps
Anubismagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ninjas in Pyjamas · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Inferno
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickNinjas in Pyjamas take Ancient
5. BanNinjas in Pyjamas remove Dust2
6. Banmagic remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
magic 53%Ninjas in Pyjamas 47%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
magic 54%Ninjas in Pyjamas 46%
The model gave 54% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 60%
Series resultmagic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2